My Analysis of the Set 4 Rare Bases on Turn 1 Consistency
Diving into the math for each base 🔢🧮
My TCGPlayer link to support: https://partner.tcgplayer.com/LumiMouse
Preface: Please let me know if you find something wrong with my calculations.
Google Drive Sheet calculations: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1y_-IH6pHSr5Yti9CxLi3r2-bD6r2Sj3Bj3SFYKpu_-4/edit?usp=sharing
Table of Contents
The Set 4 Rare Bases
Default 30HP Base
There are plenty of hypergeometric calculators online, but this is the baseline on % of seeing at least one of the target cards in the starting hand, with and without a mulligan.
The same conditional formatting rule of the default color scale is applied to all calculations in this post.
Colossus
The base has 5 additional HP over the standard 30HP bases (+16.67%) at the cost of drawing 1 fewer card in one’s starting hand (-16.67%, but net -25% after resourcing).
How much impact to our starting hand?
This base is worth it if one doesn’t care about missing a Turn 1 play. If they do, they can compensate by adding about two more turn 1 plays compared to a default base.
This base also benefits cards/leaders that cares about higher max base health, such as Anakin leader, Anakin's Interceptor, and Resolute.
Though this base does hurt certain cards like Lieutenant Childsen, if one is trying to get a max 6/6 Lieutenant Childsen on curve.
This base is also risky if the opponent has a lot of hand hate cards.
Data Vault
The base has 3 additional HP over the standard 30HP bases (+10%) at the cost of having a minimum deck size of 60 cards (+20%).
How much impact to our starting hand?
Similar to the Colossus base, one would need to add about two to three additional turn1 plays in comparison to a default base to compensate.
This base also benefits cards/leaders that care about higher max base health.
This base offers built-in protection against a mill deck (glass half full, not half empty viewpoint).
This base makes it harder for one to see what cards they want.
Thermal Oscillator
The base has 3 fewer HP over the standard 30HP bases (-10%) at the benefit of having a minimum deck size of 45 cards (-10%).
How much impact to our starting hand?
Going in the opposite direction as the above two bases, one can play about one fewer Turn 1 plays and still match the default base.
This base gives the benefit of allowing the player to see cards they “actually” want sooner.
Nabat Village
The base has 3 fewer HP over the standard 30HP bases (-10%) at the benefit of seeing 9 cards in the starting hand (+33.3%), but no option of a mulligan.
How much impact to our starting hand?
Just to clarify, the X axis (# of Non-Combo Cards) and Y axis (# of Combo: X) cards are two different sets. Using the Nabat Village’s bottom right 45.23% number as an example, that number represents the probability of one seeing at least one of the 20 non-combo cards and one seeing at least one of the 3 combo cards.
This base seems geared to finding specific combo pieces, e.g. Now There Are Two of Them. But this base doesn’t seem worth it, with the caveat that the player is only looking for a card from one combo card set. If there are several combo card sets and the player is looking for at least one from any of them, then it may be worth it.
Conclusion
Preface: this is mostly in the context of Turn 1 play consistency.
Colossus and Data Vault seem to be the bases that are most worth it, with an easily mitigated drawback of getting a Turn 1 play.
Thermal Oscillator doesn’t seem to be worth it.
Nabat Village is dependent on how many different combo card sets one is trying to find.
This analysis is conducted in a vacuum of just these four rare bases and their regular 30HP base counterparts. Whether these bases are actually competitive will depend on what the meta looks like and how they stack up against the other rare bases.
Great to see someone do the math for us, thanks Jerry!
I also think Data Vault and Colossus are great bases, the former may not see so much competitive play but I definitely believe Colossus will. +5 HP is huge, especially if they play against a 25 HP base.
Data Vault is interesting and certain leaders (ahem, Yoda), probably don't mind the extra cards, since they can play so much deck filtering and search effects. Like Mon Mothma, for example, gets nice value to dig up strong rebel cards, especially with so many great ones coming in Set 4. The recently revealed Trench leader might be fine with Data Vault as well, since you can dig for free by dumping cards, and presumably getting those cards back in some way (Palpatine's Return).