Predicting the Financial Impact of the Booster Change

Compiled the booster pack changes and my predictions on the impact.

My TCGPlayer link to support: https://partner.tcgplayer.com/LumiMouse

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Table of Contents:

• TL;DR of Changes

  • Both Regular and Carbonite Packs

  • Regular Pack Specific

  • Carbonite Pack Specific

• Predicted Impact

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2025/12/10 Booster Pack Changes Livestream:

Associated Article: https://starwarsunlimited.com/articles/a-shift-from-what-was

Regular pack changes (left: current, right: new).

Carbonite pack changes (left: current, right: new).

Source: article.

TL;DR of Changes:

Both Regular and Carbonite Packs:

• No more regular foils in packs.

Regular Pack Specific:

• Non-foil Prestige (tier 1) are also in regular packs.

• Increased HS/HSF pull rates for Rares and Legendaries.

Carbonite Pack Specific:

• Some serialized Prestiges will be out of /100 or /50 instead of the usual /250.

• Showcases will be ~2.4x harder to pull in Carbonite.

Another change post-LAW: Rare bases will show up in the base slot.

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Predicted Impact:

• With foils effectively being replaced by HS/HSF, this means that players looking to buy the generally cheaper variants of Rares/Legendaries will shift to the regular/HS/HSF market.

  • Regular/HS/HSF card prices of Rares/Legendaries ⬇

• Non-foil Prestige value will be dampened ⬇

• Serialized Prestige (Tier 3) value ⬆

• Showcase value ⬆

Regarding boxes…

• Value of regular boxes ⬆

  • Increased R/L pull rates and chance for non-foil Prestige.

  • Indirectly: Showcase value goes up due to decreased supply.

• Value of Carbonite boxes ⬇

  • The reduced serialized numbering should increase the value of a serialized Prestige, but I don’t think there are enough of collectors in this game for this reduction to be impactful. The serialization population is too high.

    • SEC has 43 Prestige cards, so that’s 43 * 250 = 10,750 serialized cards.

    • Napkin Math: If we assume that ~25% (15) of next set’s 43 (assumption) Prestiges are going to be /100, then that means:

      • 28 * 250 = 7,000 serialized cards

      • 15 * 100 = 1,500 serialized cards

      • Total: 8,500 serialized cards (still too high imo)

  • The reduced showcase pull rate lowers the expected value.

  • Indirectly: Non-foil Prestige value goes down due to increased supply.

Overall, I think this update is good. Regular foils has generally been the least sought after variant, so I commend the bold move to completely remove the regular foils.

Regular boxes should be a priority, not Carbonite boxes, so I like the changes. However, I don’t see how Carbonite boxes can be priced anywhere close to MSRP with their showcase pull rates being reduced. The increased amount of HS and HSF Commons/Uncommons isn’t worth much.

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